wallydownundy

Before World War Two, Germany endured a decade of economic losses spurred by the loss of World War One and the Great Depression. That period of time, called the Weimar Republic, was characterised by high inflation, currency devaluation, unemployment followed by a rise of nationalism and social unrest. With the vast scale of economic collapse globally I believe we’ll look back and call this time the “Pre-War Years”. Something’s gonna give - big time.

No country is being spared in the global economic collapse. Millions are jobless. In the USA in January 750,000 joined the ranks of unemployed. In the last six months 20 million people in China lost their jobs. That’s roughly the population of Australia. Government benefits are being rushed out to help but like all things government it will be too little, too late. Prices are tumbling and confidence has evaporated.

In time these collapses will ripple further. What happens when food production is impacted - or people can no longer afford dietary staples? One billion people lack access to clean drinking water. What happens when some of those live in Orange County or Barcelona or Beijing? When will civil discontent bubble into unrest?

In “Canadian Bacon” a fictional USA President finds his popularity waning. He believes war to be the best way to galvanise the public behind his presidency. Doesn’t take a large stretch of the imagination to foresee a Premier in China concerned about growing civil unrest - and using the same tactic to divert attention. And as always there are plenty of countries needing to be brought in line.

Other than the eternal bogeyman of China it is easy to see any country squabbling with its neighbours near and far over economic issues. Boost the tariff on pulp and watch Canadians get annoyed. Ban salted cod and the Portuguese are your enemies. Dispute a province and India is before the United Nations.

In times of economic unrest the quickest diversion for any politician is to externalise the argument. This isn’t the economy, stupid. This is war. Now it’s just a matter of when and where. Are the British betting agencies accepting wagers yet?